Major Hurricane Melissa continues to rapidly intensify and is forecast to impact Jamaica as a slow-moving category 5 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of more than 160 mph with gusts to 195 mph or more. An epic storm surge will erase portions of the coast while rain, measured in feet, floods the mountainous island, triggering rock and mudslides. Parts of Jamaica may become inhabitable after the wrath of this hurricane.
“Seek shelter now,” warns the National Hurricane Center to everyone on Jamaica. “A multi-day period of damaging winds and heavy rainfall have begun and will cause catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides. Extensive infrastructural damage, long-duration power and communication outages, and isolation of communities are expected. Life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the southern coast early next week,” they add.
Eastern Haiti will also feel the wrath of Major Hurricane Melissa. The National Hurricane Center says, “Catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and landslides are expected across southwestern Haiti into early next week, likely causing extensive infrastructural damage and isolation of communities. Strong winds could last for a day or more over the Tiburon peninsula.”
As of the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Major Hurricane Melissa was located about 125 miles south-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica and about 280 miles west-southwest of Port Au Prince, Haiti. Maximum sustained winds are up to 115 mph and minimum central pressure is down to 967 mb or 28.56″.
According to the NHC, a very slow westward motion is expected tonight through the end of the weekend with a turn to the north and northeast forecast on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Melissa is expected to move near or over Jamaica during the weekend and early next week, and it could be near or over eastern Cuba by the middle of next week.
Melissa is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. According to the NHC, more rapid intensification is forecast during the next day or so, followed by fluctuations in intensity. Melissa is expected to be a major hurricane when making landfall in Jamaica early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center while tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles.
Melissa is expected to bring total rainfall of 15-30″ of rain, with isolated amounts to 40″, to portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica into Wednesday.
The NHC warns, “Additional heavy rainfall is likely beyond Wednesday; uncertainty at that time range precludes exact storm totals. Catastrophic flash flooding and landslides are probable across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica.”
For eastern Cuba, total rainfall of 6-12″ with isolated amounts of 18″, are expected into Wednesday resulting in life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. Additional heavy rainfall is likely beyond Wednesday; uncertainty at that time range precludes exact storm totals.
Life-threatening storm surge is becoming more likely along the south coast of Jamaica later in the weekend or early next week. Peak storm surge heights could reach 9-13′ above ground level, near and to the east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. There is also a potential for significant storm surge along the southeast coast of Cuba early next week.
