Developing Tropical Storm Melissa in the Caribbean Sea is forecast to bring catastrophic flooding to portions of Jamaica and Haiti in the coming days. While it’s clear these islands will be hit hard, it remains unclear if the U.S. will see direct or indirect impacts from what is expected to be a Major Hurricane over time.
As of the latest update from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Melissa was located about 185 miles south-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica and about 295 miles southwest of Port Au Prince, Haiti. With maximum sustained winds of 45 mph, the storm has a minimum central pressure of 1001 mb or 29.56″.
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince and for the entire island of  Jamaica. A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the same areas. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
The NHC warns: “Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba should monitor the progress of Melissa. A hurricane warning may be required for the island of Jamaica tonight or tomorrow.”
Melissa is moving toward the north-northwest near 2 mph. According to the NHC, a slow northward or north-northeastward motion is forecast during the next day or so, followed by a sharp turn westward over the weekend. On the forecast track, Melissa is expected to move closer to Jamaica and the southwestern portion of Haiti during the next couple of days. Gradual strengthening is forecast over the next day or so, followed by rapid intensification this weekend. Melissa is forecast to become a hurricane by Saturday and a major hurricane by the end of the weekend.
Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in Haiti and Jamaica beginning on late Friday or Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in Haiti and Jamaica earlier on Friday.
Melissa is expected to bring 8-14″of rain to the southern Dominican Republic, southern Haiti, and eastern Jamaica through Sunday, with locally higher amounts possible. Additional heavy rainfall is likely beyond Sunday. However, uncertainty in Melissa’s track and forward speed reduces confidence in exact totals.
“Significant, life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides are expected,” says the National Hurricane Center.
Across northern Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and western Jamaica, 2-4″ inches of rain is expected through Sunday. Flash and urban flooding will be possible through Sunday. Flooding impacts may increase across western Jamaica next week.
Where Melissa travels to after this weekend remains unknown; the future track will depend on Melissa’s strength and the weather pattern across the U.S., the Gulf of America, the western Atlantic, and the Caribbean. Some forecast guidance suggests the storm could impact the U.S. East Coast or set-up a process where another significant storm could impact the East Coast instead. Until Melissa strengthens into a hurricane in the coming days, little will be known about its future path and strength.
Even before leaving the Caribbean, Melissa could be catastrophic. A slow-moving high-end hurricane in places like Jamaica and Haiti could leave catastrophic, if not complete, devastation. A prolonged period of very high winds, rough surf, and torrential rains could destroy whole communities.
People in Hurricane Watch zones should pay close attention to upgrades in watches/warnings and forecast updates over time, according to meteorologists at the National Hurricane Center.
