NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is calling for a near-normal Atlantic hurricane season this year, warning people that it only takes one storm to make a disaster. The update on the Atlantic basin comes one day after the Central Pacific Hurricane Center released an outlook for their basin calling for an above-normal season.
At Washington National Airport, government experts discussed the rationale for the outlook and urged caution over its contents. NOAA says competing climate factors are responsible for calling for a near-normal season. The ongoing El Nino is expected to persist and suppress the intensity of the hurricane season; however, a warmer-than-average sea-surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, and an enhanced west African monsoon on their own would favor increased hurricane activity.
For 2019, NOAA predicts a likely range of 9 to 15 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 4 to 8 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 2 to 4 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA provides these ranges with a 70% confidence. An average hurricane season produces 12 named storms, of which 6 become hurricanes, including 3 major hurricanes. While the outlook describes quantities of storms and how strong they could become, it does not predict where, if at all, these storms will strike land.
Ken Graham, the Director of the National Hurricane Center, cautioned that regardless of what a seasonal outlook suggests, people should use the time before a hurricane threat arrives to prepare.
“It just takes one.” Ken Graham, Director of the @NHC_Atlantic, tells us regardless of what seasonal outlooks call for, it’s important to be prepared before the threat arrives. #HurricaneStrong? pic.twitter.com/Fu8L8NeLar
— the Weatherboy (@theWeatherboy) May 23, 2019
“With the 2019 hurricane season upon us, NOAA is leveraging cutting-edge tools to help secure Americans against the threat posed by hurricanes and tropical cyclones across both the Atlantic and Pacific,” said Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross. “Throughout hurricane season, dedicated NOAA staff will remain on alert for any danger to American lives and communities.”
“New satellite data and other upgrades to products and services from NOAA enable a more Weather-Ready Nation by providing the public and decision makers with the information needed to take action before, during, and after a hurricane,” said Neil Jacobs, Ph.D., acting NOAA administrator.
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NOAA’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) Director, Chris Brenchley, described to us today how his Honolulu team coordinates, collaborates, & even swaps staff with Miami-based National Hurricane Center (NHC) to keep America #HurricaneStrong?@NWSHonolulu pic.twitter.com/W1WM2EeXeC
— the Weatherboy (@theWeatherboy) May 23, 2019
