The National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is calling for an extreme, high risk of tornadoes today into tonight, rating the situation a 5 out of 5 on their convective outlook scale. A tornado outbreak is expected this afternoon into early tonight from parts of the lower Mississippi Valley into the Mid-South and lower Ohio Valley. Numerous tornadoes, along with multiple EF3+ tornadoes, appear likely. In addition, tornadoes, significant severe wind gusts, and large hail to very large hail will be possible across a broad area from north Texas northeastward to the southern Great Lakes.
According to the SPC, convection is intensifying within a band from western Arkansas into southern Missouri, and additional storm development is likely this afternoon farther northeast into Illinois. Multiple, embedded supercells are developing within this band, and the threat for tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds will increase through the afternoon and into the evening as the storms spread into a more favorable downstream environment. Warm sector supercell development appears to be underway across southeast Arkansas and northwest Mississippi, and more development could occur farther northeast into the lower Ohio Valley.
The SPC says conditions are ripe to support the potential for strong-intense (EF2-EF3+) and long track tornadoes with any sustained warm sector supercells.
Due to the threat, the National Weather Service is busy issuing Tornado Watches for large parts of the area expecting impacts. As potential tornadoes are identified on weather radar or as trained spotters spot them, Tornado Watches will be upgraded to Tornado Warnings for impacted counties.
