An asteroid known as 2024 YR4, which once had the highest odds of impacting Earth of any asteroid being tracked by NASA, is no longer a threat to Earth; however, a new analysis shows that the odds of it crashing into the Earth’s Moon instead has increased.
When first discovered, asteroid 2024 YR4 had a very small, but notable chance of impacting Earth in 2032. As observations of the asteroid continued to be evaluated by scientists, experts at NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory’s (JPL’s) Center for Near-Earth Object Studies were able to calculate more precise models of the asteroid’s trajectory and now have found there is no significant potential for this asteroid to impact Earth for the next century. The latest observations have further reduced the uncertainty of its future trajectory, and the range of possible locations the asteroid could be on December 22, 2032, has moved farther away from the Earth.
These new odds represent a significant downgrade in risk from the record high chance of collision that the space agency gave early last week, when it put the odds at 3.1%, or 1 in 32. The brief time the odds exceeded 3% made the asteroid the first object to officially be classified as a Level 3 out of 10 in a measurement known as the Torino scale, which astronomer Richard Binzel first proposed nearly three decades ago. A Level 3 classification means the object poses a threat of a “close encounter.” Named after the Italian city where astronomers officially adopted it in 1999, the Torino Impact Hazard Scale is a way to communicate to the public the risks that near-Earth asteroids and other objects in spaces may pose to Earth.
But while the odds of an Earth impact have decreased, they have increased for the Moon. According to JPL today, there’s a very small chance for asteroid 2024 YR4 to impact the Moon on December 22, 2032. Based on today’s math, that probability is currently 1.7%.
NASA will continue to observe asteroid 2024 YR4 and forecast its future trajectory, leveraging information captured by observatories funded by its Planetary Defense Coordination Office. NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope will also observe the asteroid in March to further gain insights about its size for scientific purposes.
