At the National Tropical Weather Conference on South Padre Island, Texas this morning, hurricane experts gathered to discuss the upcoming hurricane season. While the focus was on the Atlantic Hurricane Basin, where there was a collective sigh of relief that the Atlantic may see a below-normal hurricane season, there were concerns that the inverse may be true in the Pacific where Hawaii could be a sitting duck for an active season. Dr. Phil Klotzbach from Colorado State University (CSU) unveiled their seasonal outlook ahead of the start of the Atlantic Hurricane Season and led today’s conversation.

“We anticipate that the 2026 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have somewhat below normal activity,” the official CSU outlook states. “Current weak La Niña conditions are likely to transition to El Niño in the next few months, with the potential for a moderate/strong El Niño for the peak of hurricane season,” they add.

Dr. Phil Klotzbach said NOAA forecasters say there is a 90% chance of an El Nino event during the peak of hurricane season.

ENSO, short for El Nino Southern Oscillation, is a recurring climate pattern involving changes in the temperature of waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. On periods ranging from about three to seven years, the surface waters across a large swath of the tropical Pacific Ocean warm or cool by anywhere from 1°C to 3°C, compared to normal. This oscillating warming and cooling pattern, referred to as the ENSO cycle, directly affects rainfall distribution in the tropics and can have a strong influence on weather across the United States and other parts of the world. El Niño and La Niña are the extreme phases of the ENSO cycle; between these two phases is a third phase called ENSO-neutral. While this phenomena impacts the entire United States, Hawaii may find itself particularly vulnerable this year to bad weather conditions.

While a strong El Nino typically leads to a less-active Atlantic hurricane season, it could lead to a hyperactive Central Pacific hurricane season. Both the Atlantic and Pacific hurricane seasons run from June 1 through to November 30.

Dr. Phil Klotzbach said Hawaii is a relatively small chain of islands in a very large ocean at today’s seasonal outlook unveiling. He added that even with an active season, because the basin is so large and the islands are relatively small, it’s possible even an active season in the Central Pacific could lead to no or a low number of landfalls.

Deputy Director of the National Hurricane Center, Jaime Rhome, urged caution for Hawaii. “Usually when the Atlantic is quiet, the Pacific perks up.”

The CSU forecasters say, “As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season. Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity.”

Hawaii has been battered by a series of severe storms in recent weeks that have led to catastrophic flooding. Known as “Kona Lows”, these atmospheric set-ups drive strong southerly winds with an abundance of moisture over the islands, leading to epic floods, wind damage, and even heavy high elevation snow. Hawaii is dealing with a Kona Low system today.

Just last night, the President Trump approved a Major Disaster Declaration for Hawaii from those Kona Low storms.

Hawaii Governor Josh Green, M.D., said, “I spoke with the Secretary of Homeland Security today and he shared with me that the President has approved a Major Disaster Declaration for Hawaiʻi following the recent Kona Low storms.” The governor added, “We’ve been awarded initial federal support to help with response and early recovery efforts. This is an important first step. As Governor, I am grateful to the President and FEMA for this critical help. Being recognized as a major disaster is significant because it opens the door for additional federal resources and establishes a shared responsibility between the state and federal government to support our communities throughout our recovery.”

Recent damage estimates from the Kona Low storms have been very high, with conservative estimates in excess of $1 billion.

“The recovery from this storm will be long and difficult and will require constant collaboration with the counties and the federal administration — and I am confident that as with other recent disasters, we will benefit from the aloha we share for each other and our collaborative approach with anyone who can offer assistance. We will continue to move with urgency to get help to those who need it most,” the Governor said.

With significant flooding and wind damage from Kona Low systems outside of hurricane season now followed by a potentially hyperactive hurricane season later this summer, there could be trouble in the land of aloha in the months ahead.

To be better prepared and informed, the National Hurricane Center is unveiling new products ahead of the upcoming hurricane season for Hawaii.  Now, meteorologists with the  National Hurricane Center  will have the ability to issue Storm Surge Watches and Warnings for the main Hawaiian Islands.