The 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Seasonal Outlook was released today at the National Tropical Weather Conference on South Padre Island, Texas; a leading hurricane forecaster announced El Nino will make a big impact on the upcoming season. The team of researchers from Colorado State University (CSU) unveiled their 2026 seasonal outlook, with Dr. Phil Klotzbach sharing their thoughts and taking questions at the event.
“We anticipate that the 2026 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have somewhat below normal activity,” the official outlook states. “Current weak La Niña conditions are likely to transition to El Niño in the next few months, with the potential for a moderate/strong El Niño for the peak of hurricane season,” they add. Dr. Phil Klotzbach said NOAA forecasters say there is a 90% chance of an El Nino event during the peak of hurricane season.
The presence of El Nino is expected to be very impactful to the season. “Sea surface temperatures in the western tropical Atlantic are warmer than normal but slightly cooler than normal in the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. We anticipate El Niño being the dominant factor for the upcoming hurricane season, driving increased levels of tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear,” the CSU outlook states, concluding, “We are forecasting a below-average probability for major hurricane landfalls along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean.”
However, as tropical forecasters always warn, it just takes one storm even in an inactive season to make a big catastrophe. The CSU forecasters say, “As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season. Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity.”
CSU’s Tropical Cyclones, Radar, Atmospheric Modeling, and Software (TC-RAMS) Team within the Department of Atmospheric Science is responsible for the forecast.
This is the 43rd year that the CSU hurricane research team has issued an Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecast. The Tropical Meteorology Project team is comprised of several other researchers from the Department of Atmospheric Science including Professor Michael Bell, and Research Scientist Levi Silvers. The department is part of the Walter Scott, Jr. College of Engineering at CSU and is one of the top ranked programs in the world. Professor Emeritus Bill Gray originated the seasonal forecasts in 1984.
The full 2026 outlook can be viewed here: https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2026-04.pdf
