A variety of meteorological ingredients are coming together today to create a large region threatened by severe weather in the eastern United States. Severe storms are firing-up now and are expected to build as the evening hours approach. Swaths of damaging winds are most likely from southern Virginia to eastern Georgia this afternoon. The risk for very large hail with a few tornadoes exists across parts of the Mid-Missouri Valley this afternoon into early evening. Otherwise, scattered severe storms are expected across a broad portion of the central and northern Great Plains, and over the eastern states.
A progressive shortwave trough was evident in morning satellite water vapor imagery over Alabama, with other minor mesoscale convective vortices farther north over east Tennessee and West Virginia; these features will continue to track eastward today across much of the Southeast states and Mid Atlantic region, firing-up storms as it does so. Strong daytime heating is occurring over this region, making the atmosphere buoyant and volatile. In this active and unsettled air mass, multiple lines and clusters of storms will traverse the area this afternoon and evening, posing a risk of damaging winds and some hail
Persistent cloud cover is limiting heating and destabilization from northern Pennsylvania and New Jersey northward into New England. Despite the limited thermodynamic environment, model guidance and recent RADAR trends suggest the potential for scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show very favorable vertical shear profiles for organized or even rotating storms capable of gusty winds and perhaps a tornado. However, given the lack of other key meteorological ingredients, it appears that the severe risk in this area will remain widely spaced and primarily marginal. The National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center is monitoring portions of the Mid Atlantic, including eastern Pennsylvania, much of New Jersey and Delaware, and northeastern Maryland for more severe thunderstorm development later this afternoon into the evening hours.
