A severe weather outbreak is becoming likely on Monday for portions of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic as a robust frontal system is forecast to push into the eastern United States. The National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has declared a region in the northeast to be at an enhanced risk of severe weather tomorrow in their latest Convective Outlook report. Thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and destructive hail along with the threat of isolated tornadoes will become a problem across New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Maryland; rough weather is possible too in Delaware, Connecticut, Virginia, North Carolina, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Massachusetts.
According to the SPC, a vigorous mid-level trough is forecast to shift east across the Ohio Valley and into the Northeast/Mid Atlantic region Monday, acquiring increasing negative tilt with time. Very strong westerly/cyclonic flow will accompany this system, which will overspread the warm sector of a sharp cold front that will shift east of the Appalachians through the midday and early afternoon hours. As the seasonably moist pre-frontal boundary layer heats through the afternoon, destabilization will fuel development of scattered to numerous thunderstorms. Due to strong winds aloft, storms will quickly organize, some growing into fast-moving clusters. Along with risk for hail, damaging winds should be become increasingly widespread through the afternoon.
Additionally, low-level southerly and south-southeasterly flow is forecast, particularly from portions of Virginia northward into Maryland, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and New York; according to the National Weather Service, this enhancement to the low-level shear suggests the potential for a couple of tornadoes in tomorrow’s severe weather outbreak.
The risk of thunderstorms and severe conditions will continue through the afternoon and into the evening, until the front approaches and clears the coast.
It is possible Severe Thunderstorm and/or Tornado Watches and Warnings may be required for impacted areas on Monday. People in these risk zones should remain weather aware and know what to do when severe weather strikes well before it does.