While the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season officially starts on June 1, it appears likely the season will see an early jump-start with a new system likely to form off of the U.S. southeast coast in the coming days. The National Hurricane Center now believes there’s a 70% chance that a subtropical depression or storm will form here within the next 5 days.
In a special Tropical Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) this morning, meteorologists there described a broad area of low pressure that is expected to develop late this week or early this weekend near or within a couple of hundred miles north of the Bahamas. According to the NHC, environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a subtropical depression or storm is likely to form this weekend while it moves northeastward over the western Atlantic.
Global computer forecast guidance continues to show the system developing with time too, but differ in how they bring direct or indirect impacts to the U.S. East Coast. Some guidance suggests the system may interact with an approaching frontal system early next week, which could the set the stage for a flooding event in portions of the Mid Atlantic. It is still too early to say with any degree of certainty what, if any impacts, this system may or may not have on the United States.
While the Atlantic Hurricane Season doesn’t start until June 1, the National Hurricane Center is urging people to be properly prepared for the upcoming season. While NOAA won’t release their official seasonal outlooks until later this month, many other leading tropical weather forecasters are calling for a busy Atlantic hurricane season. With a busy season possible ahead, the National Hurricane Center recommends that people develop a written action plan, consider helping neighbors in their planning process, make sure their homes are strengthened prior to being threatened by a tropical system, make sure insurance is in-order, stock up on essential supplies, develop an evacuation plan, and ultimately identify and determine any risks you may face from a storm.
The first named storm of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season would be named Arthur once it’s formed. Experts with the Tropical Meteorology Project at CSU believe the upcoming hurricane season will be a particularly busy one with increased chances of a landfalling tropical system compared to typical seasons.