A stormy Saturday is likely in portions of the Mid Atlantic this weekend. According to the National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center, severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging gusts are possible across portions of the central Appalachians into the Mid Atlantic and Northeast on Saturday.
The large-scale pattern will remain relatively unchanged on Saturday, with a relatively deep upper-level trough extending from
eastern Canada into the Northeast and Great Lakes regions, while an upper-level ridge remains in place over much of the West. A weakening cold front will move into parts of the Northeast and Ohio Valley during the afternoon and evening while a strong reinforcing shortwave trough and attendant cold front will move southeastward across parts of the northern Great Plains into the upper Great Lakes region.
Scattered thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon along and ahead of the weakening cold front from parts of the Northeast into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. According to the Storm Prediction Center, there will be some displacement between stronger low/midlevel flow to the northeast and stronger instability with southwestward extent. The best relative overlap of instability and modestly favorable flow/shear prime for thunderstorm development is expected from the central Appalachians into parts of the Northeast. Multiple loosely organized storm clusters will be possible across this area, with a threat of isolated to scattered damaging winds and localized hail.
While a tornado could form from any severe thunderstorm cell, the Storm Prediction Center does not believe there is an elevated threat of tornadoes in the eastern U.S. tomorrow in this meteorological set-up. As such, the primary severe weather hazards will be damaging wind and localized large hail.
Another round of storms are possible along the I-95 corridor in the Northeast and Mid Atlantic again on Sunday, although Saturday is more favorable for severe weather development than Sunday.
