Tornadoes Possible Wednesday from Texas to New Jersey

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center believes these shaded areas could see isolated tornadoes on Wednesday; the brown areas are more likely than the green areas to see tornadic thunderstorms. Any tornadoes that do form would be more potent in the hatched areas than the non-hatched areas. Image: NOAA SPC — NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center believes these shaded areas could see isolated tornadoes on Wednesday; the brown areas are more likely than the green areas to see tornadic thunderstorms. Any tornadoes that do form would be more potent in the hatched areas than the non-hatched areas. Image: NOAA SPC

Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday from the ArkLaTex and Lower Mississippi Valley northeastward through the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Within this area, there is also a risk of isolated tornadoes from Texas to New Jersey as a robust front moves through.

A broad fetch of moist, southerly flow will support poleward moisture return as far north as the upper Ohio Valley by Wednesday afternoon. A trailing cold front attendant to a nearby surface low will push east and southeast through the day, reaching the Mid-Atlantic and northern Gulf Coast by Thursday morning. Strong to severe thunderstorm chances will be focused along and ahead of this front through the day on Wednesday as it pushes east and southeast.

A corridor of higher severe wind, and perhaps tornado, potential may emerge across Ohio into parts of West Virginia and western Pennsylvania Wednesday morning into the afternoon hours. Latest computer forecast guidance suggests conditions will be ripe for well-organized convection, including supercells here.

According to NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center (SPC), one or more broken bands of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing ahead of a Pacific front across the greater Texarkana region Wednesday morning. While some modulation in convective intensity is anticipated during the morning hours, continued lift ahead of the southern stream upper wave through peak heating will promote a re-intensification of thunderstorms by early afternoon. Southerly flow through a deep layer will promote along boundary storm motions and maintain a linear storm mode through the day. An increase in storm coverage is anticipated through the lower Mississippi Valley as the primary synoptic cold front pushes into the region by late afternoon. While low to mid-level flow fields are expected to weaken by early evening as the synoptic low accelerates away to the northeast, adequate shear will likely be in place during the afternoon hours to support organized segments capable of severe gusts and embedded circulations which could lead to tornadoes.

A somewhat similar scenario will play out Wednesday as the front continues east into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic southwest through the Tennessee and Lower Mississippi Valleys and into eastern Texas. While damaging winds are possible here, there is a more focused threat for a few tornadoes ahead of the upper waves over the Upper Ohio Valley and adjacent Appalachians, and separately for eastern Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley.

In addition to severe storms and tornadic threats, flash flooding will also remain a threat over the southern zone with excessive rainfall possible around the ArkLaTex where storm coverage will focus ahead of the merging northern and southern frontal boundaries.

The fronts should finally sweep through the East on Thursday and end the severe and flash flood threats by the evening.