The National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida has classified a disturbance moving into the Gulf of Mexico as a tropical depression, the 10th of the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season. The system, known for now as Tropical Depression #10, is forecast to become a hurricane before impacting Florida and the U.S. East Coast. When it reaches tropical storm strength on the way to becoming a hurricane, it will be named Idalia.
No Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches or Warnings are up for the United States yet, but that could change by the end of the weekend.
Right now, Tropical Depression #10 is located about 45 miles east-northeast of Cozumel Mexico. With maximum sustained winds of 30 mph, the storm is drifting to the northwest at 1 mph. The minimum central pressure is 1005 mb or 29.68″.
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the depression is nearly stationary, and little overall movement is expected through Sunday. A slow, generally northward, motion is expected to begin on Monday. On the forecast track, the center will move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Monday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph with higher gusts now. Gradual strengthening is forecast by the NHC during the next few days, and the system is likely to become a tropical storm on Sunday. The system could then become a hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday.
Impacts in Florida may be felt as soon as Monday evening. Impacts could be felt across Georgia by Tuesday night, with the storm moving up the southeast into South Carolina by Wednesday morning. From there, the system should accelerate up the coast. An area of high pressure over the Great Lakes will help steer the storm east over time, but it isn’t yet known how far up the east coast the storm will be before such a turn out to sea happens. As such, everyone from New York City south along the U.S. East Coast should closely monitor this storm over the next several days.