The latest satellite image of Tropical Depression #4 looks poor and it is unlikely this system will survive beyond a few days. The system has a small area of circulation that the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is calling “tenacious.” The NHC says the depression has continued to hold its own early this morning with the low-level center now having moved up into the deep convective cloud mass.
A strong low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the depression should act to steer the small cyclone generally west-northwestward until dissipation occurs in about 3-4 days. The new forecast track from the National Hurricane Center lies down the middle of the tightly clustered model suite. As the official forecast track shows, the depression is expected to retain that status for another 36 hours or so. While the vertical wind shear remains relatively low, westerly vertical wind shear is forecast to increase which should induce gradual weakening. The small cyclone is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by 48-72 hours and dissipate by 96 hours. The National Hurricane Center does offer caution though, saing that there is a model (UKMET) that does strengthen the system over time. Although the other global and regional models do not show regeneration at this time, they do however show similar improving upper-level wind conditions east of Florida in 5 days. For now, the official intensity forecast remains similar to the previous NHC advisory.
Even if the system dissipates, lingering moisture may enhance rainfall rates along a frontal system that’ll be on the eastern US in about a week.
