It appears some tropical trouble is brewing in the Gulf of Mexico. According to the latest release of the Tropical Outlook from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), there is now a 70% chance that a tropical cyclone will form in/around the Gulf of Mexico over the next 7 days.

“A broad area of low pressure should form during the next few days over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the adjacent portions of Central America,” warns the NHC.  They add thereafter, gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form as the system moves slowly northward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico through the end of next week.

In the short term, regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains over portions of Central America during the next several days.

The longer term has more questions than answers; while the NHC says tropical cyclone formation is likely, they have yet to express an opinion on how strong it’ll become or where it’ll go.

Global computer forecast model guidance has been waffling on solutions in recent days, suggesting anything from a strong tropical storm to a strong hurricane will grow in the central Gulf of Mexico. From there, solutions have been literally all over the place, with some model runs taking the storm west towards Texas, others taking it east into Florida, and others yet suggesting the central Gulf coast could be the final place of landfall.

For now, interests along the entire Gulf Coast should continue to monitor it. Even if a tropical depression forms as the NHC expects one to develop, it likely wouldn’t impact the United States coast until Wednesday at the earliest.