A new tropical cyclone is forming in the Gulf of Mexico. According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami, Florida, satellite, surface, and aircraft data show that the center of the large low pressure area is over the Bay of Campeche with a central pressure near 1001 mb. While the system currently does not have the structure of a tropical cyclone, as the associated convection is poorly organized and the maximum winds are located about 200-250 nautical miles northeast of the center, global forecast models do suggest some better organization in the hours ahead. Because bands of stronger winds are forecast to start impacting portions of the western Gulf Coast on Wednesday, a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from Port O’Conner, Texas south to Boca de Catan, Mexico. The NHC issued the watch for the U.S. coastline while the Government of Mexico issued the watch for the Mexican coastline.
For now, the system is being officially referred to as “Potential Tropical Cyclone One.”
According to the NHC, the cyclone is expected to turn west-northwestward and westward on the south side of a mid- to upper-level ridge over the northern Gulf coast. This should steer the system into northeastern Mexico between 48 to 72 hours from now. The global models suggest that some deepening of the central pressure could occur, although none of them currently forecast the system to tighten up into a classic tropical cyclone. Based on that, the intensity forecast calls for only modest strengthening. There is a chance than a small-scale vorticity center inside the large cyclonic envelope may develop enough convection to form a tighter wind core, and if that happens, the system would officially become a named tropical storm. But the NHC isn’t certain that will happen; there is a chance the system will never become a tropical cyclone. But even so, gusty winds and heavy rains could lash the coast as it eventually moves inland.
“The disturbance is very large with rainfall, coastal flooding, and wind impacts likely to occur far from the center along the coasts of Texas and northeastern Mexico,” cautioned the NHC in an update issued this afternoon. “Rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One will impact large regions of Central America, northeastern Mexico and southeastern Texas. This rainfall will likely produce considerable flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding. Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher terrain across Central America into Northeast Mexico.” Beyond those hazards, moderate coastal flooding is likely along much of the Texas Coast beginning early Tuesday and continuing through midweek.
