Colorado State University’s (CSU) Tropical Meteorology Project located in the Department of Atmospheric Science has updated their 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook. The initial Outlook, unveiled by Dr. Phil Klotzbach at the 2018 Tropical Weather Conference in South Padre Island, Texas in April, explores multiple variables that influence tropical development in the Atlantic. Based on today’s update, even less tropical storm and hurricane activity is expected than before. In all, the seasonal outlook calls for 12 named storms versus the 14 initially forecast. The initial forecast of 7 hurricanes has dropped down to 5 and the number of expected major hurricanes has dropped from 3 to 1.
As with previous outlook releases, the study authors caution, “Coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them, and they need to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.” The 2018 season started on June 1 and runs through to the end of November.
The updated report can be seen here in PDF form: https://tropical.colostate.edu/media/sites/111/2018/08/2018-0802.pdf
The effort at CSU is led by Research Scientist Dr. Phil Klotzbach. He received his Ph.D. in Atmospheric Science from CSU in 2007. Klotzbach has been employed in the Department of Atmospheric Science for the past seventeen years and was co-author on the Atlantic basin hurricane forecasts with Dr. William Gray through 2005. He became first author on the seasonal hurricane forecasts in 2006. Klotzbach developed the two-week forecasts currently being issued during the peak months of the hurricane season between August-October. He has published over two dozen articles in peer-reviewed journals such as Journal of Climate and Weather and Forecasting.
“We’re delighted to have Weatherboy on-board as a sponsor this season. We’re also thankful for the additional venues Weatherboy provides to get the word out about our forecasts and hurricane safety information in general,” Dr. Klotzbach said. Weatherboy joins the Insurance Information Institute, Interstate Restoration, and Ironshore as project sponsors this year.
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