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Hawaii Could See Hurricane Moke This Weekend

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A developing disturbance south and east of Hawaii could become Hurricane Moke in the coming days; it may also directly impact areas hit hard just days ago by Hurricane Lala. Image: NOAA
A developing disturbance south and east of Hawaii could become Hurricane Moke in the coming days; it may also directly impact areas hit hard just days ago by Hurricane Lala. Image: NOAA

While still dealing with the immediate after math of Hurricane Lala, the islands of Hawaii may be in the line of attack from a developing tropical cyclone in the central Pacific. While it hasn’t formed yet, the National Hurricane Center says there’s a 90% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours; computer models project robust intensification and the likelihood that’ll it quickly grow into a hurricane. Once this disturbance becomes a named tropical storm, it would use the next name on the Hawaiian list of names which is “Moke”, pronounced like the Hawaiian delicacy, “poke.”

An aerial view of communities overwhelmed by mud and boulders brought down the hillside by rain that was measured in feet from Hurricane Lala. Image: Governor Josh Green
An aerial view of communities overwhelmed by mud and boulders brought down the hillside by rain that was measured in feet from Hurricane Lala. Image: Governor Josh Green

The National Weather Service office in Honolulu, Hawaii wants people prepared. In an email out today, they wrote, “Because the system has not yet developed, there is significant uncertainty in the long-range track and intensity forecasts. However, after suffering damage from Hurricane Lala, we are more susceptible to additional impacts from the developing system. Therefore residents should start now to prepare for additional impacts just in case rather than waiting to see how the forecast progresses. While it is too soon to determine the exact location or magnitude of potential storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts, the general timeframe for impacts is late Saturday 8/22 through Monday 8/24.”

An area of low pressure located about 1,300 miles  east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands is producing showers and thunderstorms that continue to show signs of organization. According to the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii, environmental conditions appear favorable for further development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or so as the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph and crosses into the Central Pacific.

The res areas on the map illustrate where tropical cyclones could form in the basins around the world. Image: NOAA CPC
The res areas on the map illustrate where tropical cyclones could form in the basins around the world. Image: NOAA CPC

Computer models suggest the storm could soon become a tropical storm and intensify into a hurricane, potentially approaching the Big Island of Hawaii as a Category 1 hurricane Sunday or Monday.

Beyond the threat of what could become Moke over time, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is projecting several more tropical cyclones in and around the basin. While it is too soon to tell whether or not any of those will provide direct impacts to Hawaii, its important that people be prepared for a continued hyperactive hurricane season there.