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Tropical Storm Don Forecast to Dissipate After Wild Track

by Weatherboy Team Meteorologist - July 23, 2023

This map shows where Don has been this month and includes the forecast cone of where it should go as it continues to weaken and fade away.  Image: NHC
This map shows where Don has been this month and includes the forecast cone of where it should go as it continues to weaken and fade away. Image: NHC



Tropical Storm Don, which became the first hurricane for the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane season, continues to weaken today and should weaken and completely dissipate during the upcoming week after moving about a wild track in the Atlantic.

Don has spun about in the Atlantic for many days, fortunately not directly impacting any land mass. More than 10 days ago on July 11, a trough of low pressure formed over the central Atlantic  east-northeast of Bermuda. Though the system remained embedded within the trough and had not developed a compact wind field, a well-defined center of circulation developed along with persistent deep convection, prompting the National Hurricane Center to classify it as a Subtropical Storm on July 14. By the 16th, Don weakened to a subtropical depression but on the next day, the system transitioned to a true tropical depression. Don would eventually become a tropical storm and became the season’s first hurricane yesterday. While it remained a hurricane for 12 hours, it weakened back to a tropical storm today as it moved over colder waters.

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the storm is moving up the list of longest-lasting tropical cyclones on record for July, including subtropical stages. Preliminary review shows that Don is tied for 10th longest lasting storm  and the cyclone could make the top 5 longest-lasting for July if it lasts through early Monday.

The NHC says Don is starting to lose its overall convective pattern and should begin to rapidly weaken tonight and tomorrow. Available global model guidance suggest that Don should lose any remaining deep convection within the next 18 to 24 hours and become a post-tropical cyclone at that time.

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