New York City, New Jersey Areas at Highest Risk of Tornadoes Today in U.S.

According to the Storm Prediction Center, the greatest threat of tornadic thunderstorms anywhere in the country is in the blue shaded region of this map. Image: NWS

The area at highest risk for tornadoes across the country is in the metro New York City area, northern New Jersey, and parts of Pennsylvania. That is the assessment of the National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center, who highlighted this region of having an elevated threat of tornadic thunderstorms. While there is a risk of isolated tornadoes, though, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) says there’s an even higher risk of severe winds and straight-line wind damage from the storms expected to march through the region later today.

According to the SPC and their latest Convective Outlook update, clusters of thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts are possible today into tonight from the Ohio Valley into northern Mid Atlantic, across parts of the Ozark Plateau into lower Mississippi Valley, and to the lee of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains.

While thunderstorms are possible in the light green area, there is a risk of severe thunderstorms in the dark green area. The yellow area indicates the region that has the highest threat for severe storms today and tonight. Image: NWS

In the northeast, morning water vapor imagery from the GOES-East weather satellite shows a fast-moving trough over Wisconsin. This feature will track across the Great Lakes region today and into the northeast states tonight. Ahead of the system, strong heating is occurring from parts of New York and Pennsylvania eastward into the Mid Atlantic region and southern New England. A diffuse surface boundary extends from northern Pennsylvania to coastal New England, with temperatures likely to rise into the 80s and 90s to the south. This will result in an environment of steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient instability for scattered afternoon thunderstorms. According to the SPC, current indications are that storms will form over Ohio and western Pennsylvania by early afternoon and spread eastward through the day.

“Storms may track across southern New England and to the New Jersey / Delaware / Maryland coast during the evening with a continued severe threat,” the SPC warns.

According to the National Weather Service office in Mount Holly, New Jersey, they expect a few storms to pop starting around 6 pm, mainly in the central Pennsylvania area, but say they expect most activity around New Jersey and New York City to begin around 8 pm with the bulk of the activity after 10 pm.