The 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season was an exceptionally busy one; however, it appears to be ending quietly. The season, which officially began on June 1 draws to a close on November 30. The National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida says it is unlikely that any tropical cyclones will form over the next 5 days and American GFS computer forecast model guidance suggests the same will be true through to the end of the month.
In the Tropical Outlook released by the National Hurricane Center today, it was very similar to what it’s been the last several days: “Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.”
The Atlantic isn’t the only basin that’s been quiet. The globe has had no hurricane-strength tropical cyclones since Typhoon Malou on October 29. Only 2 other times in satellite era, which started in 1966, has the globe had no hurricane-strength tropical cyclones from October 30 – November 21: 1973 and 2012. The globe has also had no major hurricane or typhoon or cyclone formations since September 25. A major storm is considered to have winds greater than 111 mph. All other hurricane seasons in the satellite era have had at least two global major hurricane formations between September 26 – November 19. In addition to that, the globe has generated just 19 ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) over the 30 day period ending November 15, which is the the lowest Accumulated Cyclone Energy for this period in satellite era. ACE metric accounts for frequency, intensity & duration of tropical storms & hurricanes.
While things are quiet now, it was a busy season in the Atlantic which exhausted the name list set for tropical storms and hurricanes for the year. Because a season only has 21 names to use, the National Hurricane Center would need to rely on a back-up list of names created this year for the very first time. In past years, should there be 22 or more storms, the National Hurricane Center would name storms after Greek alphabet letters. To avoid confusion moving forward, they developed a list of more traditional names for the basin. The first storm on this back-up list would be called “Adria.” While it’s unlikely that “Adria” would form this month, named storms have formed out-of-season through December and should that happen this year, it would be given that name. Any storm that forms in the off-season in the new calendar year would pull from 2022 storm name lists.