Beryl is expected to rapidly intensify tonight and strike Texas tomorrow morning as a hurricane, according to the latest update from the National Hurricane Center. Hurricane Hunters investigating the storm system have found the storm to be stronger than before and additional intensification is likely in the hours ahead, which will bring dangerous storm surge, flash flooding, and strong winds to the Lone Star State.
As of the last advisory from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Beryl was located about 105 miles south-southeast of Matagorda, Texas and about 120 miles east-southeast of Corpus Christi, Texas. Maximum sustained winds are 70 mph, making it a strong tropical storm just 4 mph shy of being a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale. The minimum central pressure is down to 987 mb or 29.15″ and the storm is moving to the north-northwest at 12 mph.
Numerous warnings have been issued ahead of the storm’s arrival.
Some warnings have changed. The Hurricane Warning south of Port Aransas has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning while the Storm Surge Warning south of Port Aransas, including Corpus Christi Bay, has been discontinued. The Tropical Storm Warning south of Port Mansfield has been discontinued.
With these changes, a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the area stretching from Port Aransas to Sabine Pass, including Matagorda Bay and Galveston Bay while a Hurricane Warning is in effect for the the Texas coast from Port Aransas northward to San Luis Pass. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Texas coast north of San Luis Pass to Port Bolivar while a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Texas coast south of Port Aransas to Port Mansfield and the Texas coast north of San Luis Pass to Sabine Pass.
Each warning and watch means something different. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations.
“This is a life-threatening situation,” the NHC warns. “Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.”
For now, Beryl is moving to the north-northwest at 12 mph. The NHC expects the storm to turn toward the north on Monday. On this forecast track, the center of Beryl is expected to make landfall on the middle Texas coast early Monday. From there, Beryl is forecast to turn northeastward and move farther inland over eastern Texas and Arkansas late Monday and Tuesday.
Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected, and Beryl is forecast to become a hurricane again tonight. Additional strengthening is expected before Beryl reaches the Texas coast early Monday.
The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas in Texas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide:
- Port O’Connor to San Luis Pass: 4-7 feet
- Matagorda Bay: 4-7 feet
- San Luis Pass to High Island: 4-6 feet
- Galveston Bay: 4-6 feet
- Mesquite Bay to Port O’Connor: 3-5 feet
- High Island to Sabine Pass: 3-5 feet
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
Heavy rainfall of 5-10″ with localized amounts of 15″ is expected across portions of the middle and upper Texas Gulf Coast and eastern Texas through Monday night. Considerable flash and urban flooding as well as minor to isolated major river flooding is expected.
A few tornadoes could occur along the middle and upper Texas Coast through tonight, and across eastern Texas into Louisiana and Arkansas on Monday.
Swells generated by Beryl are expected to affect eastern Mexico and much of the Gulf Coast of the U.S. during the next day or two. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
The National Hurricane Center says these are the four key messages they wish to get out about Beryl:
- There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation along the coast of Texas from the north entrance to the Padre Island National Seashore to Sabine Pass, including Matagorda Bay and Galveston Bay. Residents in those areas should follow any advice given by local officials and follow evacuation orders.
- Beryl is forecast to bring damaging hurricane-force winds to portions of the Texas coast tonight and early Monday. A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Baffin Bay to San Luis Pass.
- Considerable flash and urban flooding is expected tonight through Monday night across portions of the middle and upper Texas Gulf Coast and eastern Texas. Minor to isolated major river flooding is also expected.
- Rip currents will cause life-threatening beach conditions through Monday across much of the Gulf Coast. Beachgoers should heed warning flags and the advice of lifeguards and local officials before venturing into the water.
