The National Hurricane Center is forecasting that Tropical Storm Chris will intensify to a hurricane by tomorrow; meanwhile, they’re also expressing concern about the remnants of Beryl, which may regenerate into a tropical cyclone again.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Chris, located a couple of hundred miles south-southeast of the North Carolina Outer Banks. Chris has been nearly stationary the past several hours, and little motion is expected during the next day or so. A northeastward motion is forecast to begin late Tuesday, and Chris is forecast to accelerate northeastward on Wednesday and Thursday. Reports from a NOAA reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph with higher gusts. However, the NHC says strengthening is expected to begin by tonight and continue for the next couple of days, and Chris is forecast to become a hurricane on Tuesday. For now, tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the center. During the past few hours, NOAA buoy 41002 located just southwest of the center reported a sustained wind of 49 mph and a gust to 59 mph. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from a NOAA reconnaissance aircraft is 999 mb (29.50 inches).
Swells generated by Chris are expected to increase and affect portions of the coasts of North Carolina and the Mid-Atlantic states over the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, even for experienced swimmers and surfers; people should avoid coastal waters. There’s also a threat of beach erosion and localized coastal flooding, especially at times of high tide.
While Hurricane Beryl dissipated over the weekend, it may be making a comeback. An area of showers and thunderstorms associated with the remnants of Beryl is producing locally heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds over the northeastern Caribbean Sea, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. According to the NHC, the disturbance is expected to move quickly west-northwestward for the next day or so, passing over Hispaniola tonight and emerging over the Atlantic waters near the southeastern Bahamas on Tuesday. Unfavorable upper-level winds and interaction with land should prevent redevelopment during the next day or so, but the NHC cautions that environmental conditions are forecast to become a little more conducive for regeneration of a tropical cyclone on Wednesday or Thursday when the system is forecast to turn northward near the Bahamas and the western Atlantic.
While Chris is not expected to directly impact the U.S. East Coast, it is too soon to say with certainty if Beryl will find the same fate.
People up and down the entire East Coast and Gulf Coast should make sure they have a Hurricane Action Plan. The 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season runs through to the end of November. Even if Chris or Beryl aren’t a direct threat, other storms this season could be.