With most of April 2022 behind us, many are getting excited at the prospect of longer, warmer days, more outdoor activities, and the joys that late spring and early summer weather bring. However, extended range computer forecast is suggesting that Old Man Winter won’t be giving up his grip so easily any time soon, with more below-normal temperatures and even new threats of snow arriving into early May.
While the calendar says we’re in mid April, the weather has been more winter like than not lately. A long-duration winter storm just impacted portions of the middle of the country, where record breaking blizzard conditions dropped incredible amounts of late-season snow. An unusually potent late-season nor’easter just dropped heavy snow over portions of the northeast; even northern New Jersey saw several inches of wet snow from the storm. Even Hawaii got in on the wintry action, with a winter storm that brought Winter Storm Warnings to the Big Island and produced an Easter Sunday morning with a snowy view for many.
The latest experimental North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) 8-14 day Temperature Guidance suggests that temperatures will remain below normal across much of the country through May 3. The best odds of being below normal are across the Great Lakes region, Northeast, and Mid Atlantic. While much of the country is projected to see below normal temperatures, portions of Utah, Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, and western Texas are forecast to see above normal temperatures. Overall, more of the country is projected to see below normal temperatures than above normal readings. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) cautions the NAEFS is still experimental at this time.
While the NAEFS is experimental and subject to error, other climate guidance also suggests a cool end to April and an equally cool start to May. The afternoon run of the American GFS computer forecast model suggests another accumulating snow event in the northeast from New Hampshire to New Jersey around the 27th and 28th of April while snow, sleet, and freezing rain is also forecast for portions of Wisconsin then too.