The National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida continues to monitor two areas for potential tropical cyclone development within the Atlantic Hurricane Basin. One area is near Central America while the other is in the Central Atlantic.
The first system is being watched, and the more serious of the two threats, is east of the Leeward Islands over the Central Atlantic. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure located several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands remain disorganized. This system is forecast by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to move generally westward to west-northwestward, and environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for gradual development late this week and into the weekend. A tropical depression could form as the system moves near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Friday, then near the Greater Antilles over the weekend. For now, the NHC says there’s a 40% chance of tropical cyclone formation with this system over the next 7 days.
The second system being monitored is in the Western Caribbean. Showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Caribbean Sea are associated with a broad area of low pressure. According to the NHC, some gradual development is possible over the next couple of days if the system stays over water while it moves slowly northwestward toward Central America. The NHC isn’t very confident that a tropical cyclone will form here, giving it low odds of 20% of actually developing over the next 7 days. However, regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible across portions of Central America and southern Mexico late this week and into the weekend. Heavy rain could create life-threatening flash floods and landslides.
Elsewhere across the basin, the NHC has no other area of concern they’re tracking and they don’t believe any other system will form over the next 7 days.
The 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season continues through to the end of November.
