The National Hurricane Center expects a new tropical system to develop in the Atlantic in the coming days. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) believes there is now a 70% chance that a tropical cyclone will form here over the next 7 days.
According to a Tropical Outlook released this afternoon by the NHC, a small area of low pressure located roughly midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although environmental conditions are only marginally conducive, the NHC says slow development is likely and will probably become a tropical depression early next week while it moves westward across the tropical Atlantic.
The Atlantic Hurricane Season should be ramping up in the coming weeks, with the traditional peak activity of the season experienced in early September. The season runs from June 1 through November 30.
NOAA released their seasonal outlook for the upcoming 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season earlier this year; sSimilar to others’ forecasts released earlier this year, NOAA scientists are calling for a near-normal season in the months ahead.
NOAA’s Outlook calls for a near-normal level of hurricane activity in the Atlantic this year. NOAA’s outlook for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season predicts a 40% chance of a near-normal season, a 30% chance of an above-normal season and a 30% chance of a below-normal season.
NOAA is forecasting a range of 12 to 17 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 5 to 9 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 4 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA has a 70% confidence in these ranges.
This Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be less active than recent years due to competing factors — some that suppress storm development and some that fuel it — driving this year’s overall forecast for a near-normal season. In a media event prior to the start of the ’23 hurricane season, NOAA said they’re 93% confident that El Nino will be present for at least August/September/October for the hurricane season which would typically dampen the number of storms during a season. But NOAA adds that the Atlantic Ocean is anomalously warm, which could counteract any tampering brought about by El Nino.
“As we saw with Hurricane Ian, it only takes one hurricane to cause widespread devastation and upend lives. So regardless of the number of storms predicted this season, it is critical that everyone understand their risk and heed the warnings of state and local officials. Whether you live on the coast or further inland, hurricanes can cause serious impacts to everybody in their path,” said FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell. “Visit ready.gov or listo.gov for readiness resources, and get real time emergency alerts by downloading the FEMA App. Actions taken today can save your life when disaster strikes. The time to prepare is now.”
