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Hurricane Center Says East Coast System Likely to Develop

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The National Hurricane Center says it is now more likely than not that a system will form near the X and move around in the orange shaded area on this map over the holiday weekend. Image: NHC
The National Hurricane Center says it is now more likely than not that a system will form near the X and move around in the orange shaded area on this map over the holiday weekend. Image: NHC

The National Hurricane Center now says it is more likely than not that a tropical or subtropical cyclone will form near Florida and move up portions of the U.S. East Coast in the coming days, boosting odds pegged at 40% to 60% that formation will occur.

While there’s a 60% chance that a system will develop here, it probably won’t happen quickly. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) says there’s only a 20% chance that development would occur within the next 48 hours.

The system being tracked by the National Hurricane Center should bring soaking rains to the southeastern U.S. in the coming days; these are forecast rain totals for the next 5 days. Image: WPC
The system being tracked by the National Hurricane Center should bring soaking rains to the southeastern U.S. in the coming days; these are forecast rain totals for the next 5 days. Image: WPC

The area of concern is along a weakening frontal boundary near Florida or the Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States from which an  area of low pressure is forecast to develop  by Saturday. According to the NHC, environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive for some slow development, but a tropical or subtropical depression could form in this region over the weekend or early next week while the system drifts northward or northeastward.

Even if a Tropical or Subtropical Depression or Storm doesn’t form,  heavy soaking rains are possible across portions of the southeastern U.S., especially so across the west-central Florida coast. Some areas could see over 5″ of rain.

According to the National Hurricane Center, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane  Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the  system on Friday, if necessary.