The latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center isn’t too scary this Halloween: there isn’t any developed tropical cyclone anywhere in the Atlantic Hurricane Basin and there’s only a moderate chance of tropical cyclone formation in the basin over the next 7 days. This forecast is based on the latest assessment performed by the Miami, Florida-based National Hurricane Center (NHC.)
According to the NHC, a trough of low pressure over the eastern Caribbean Sea continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development during the next several days while the system moves westward over the central and southwestern Caribbean Sea, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the latter part of this week. Regardless of development, this system has the potential to produce heavy rains over portions of Central America towards the end of this week.
According to the NHC, there’s only a 30% chance that this tropical cyclone will form over the next 48 hours. However, those odds do grow to 70% over the next 7 days. Based on this assessment, any development that would occur would likely happen Halloween.
The Atlantic Hurricane Season runs through to the end of November.