The Atlantic Hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30 each year, keeping the experts at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) very busy. Ever wonder what happens at the NHC during the off-season? We had one of our meteorologists find out.
Situated right in the middle of Miami-Dade County in Southern Florida you will find the National Hurricane Center. A simple search reveals that it is located in University Park, at Florida International University and, according to Google, open 24 hours. While Hurricane Season in the Atlantic is from June 1 to November 30, the Eastern Pacific has a jump start on things with an official season start date of May 15. Both the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific basins are covered by the National Hurricane Center. At the center, a shift of workers will work around the clock monitoring the areas for any sign of tropical cyclone development and covering the individual storm, or storms, once they form in either of these basins.
On December 1, when the hurricane season ends, you may be able to hear a collective sigh of relief from the hurricane forecasters. However, the National Hurricane Center does not close and wait for the next season. The shifts may change a bit and there may not be as many products issued, but the work continues inside the center. Aside from covering an out-of-season storm, preparations for next season are already underway before the current season even ends.
One of those meteorologists at the National Hurricane Center is Daniel Brown. He is a Senior Hurricane Specialist and Warning Coordination Meteorologist. Brown’s career with NOAA began almost 25 years ago. In addition to forecasting, he also coordinates outreach and training activities to develop hurricane preparedness training courses for emergency managers.
Weatherboy:
What happens December 1st? Is there some type of end of season meeting/party?
Brown:
There is no party, but a lot of relieved hurricane forecasters. NHC Hurricane Specialists work rotating shifts from May 15, the start of the eastern Pacific hurricane season, until November 30. During the off-season the forecasters work primarily normal business hours Monday through Friday. Pre- and post-hurricane season meetings are held to discuss operational concerns and review new operational products and procedures. These meetings are also used to update forecasters on numerical model upgrades and any new observational tools.
Weatherboy:
Do you have more staff on hand during hurricane season than out of season? Do meteorologists there schedule/take vacation before and after hurricane season? Are they permitted to take vacation between June 1 and November 30?
Brown:
NHC staffing does not change between the off-season and hurricane season. During U.S. hurricane threats additional staff is available through FEMA’s Hurricane Liaison Team, which helps NHC communicate forecast information and potential storm hazards to emergency managers. NHC’s Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch is a year-around forecast operational branch that provides marine forecasts over the tropical and subtropical waters of the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico, and eastern Pacific Ocean. NHC Hurricane Specialists can take time off during the hurricane season, but there are limits to the number than can be out of the office at any given time. During the peak of the hurricane season, from August through October, only one forecaster can be gone at a time. Most do not take any time off during this typically busy period.
Weatherboy:
Is there any type of post hurricane season reports that are prepared? Looking back at individual storms or the season as a whole? Analyzing forecasts and looking at ways to improve for next season?
Brown:
Hurricane Specialists complete reports on each tropical cyclone that occurs in the Atlantic and eastern Pacific basins during each season. Each specialist is typically responsible for 3 to 5 reports each year. As part of the report, the entire life-cycle of the storm is reanalyzed using all of the data collected during the storm. The report becomes the official climatological record of the storm, including the track, intensity, and size of the storm every six hours during its life. The report includes a summary of the peak winds, storm surge, and rainfall that occurred. A section on damage and storm-related casualties is included and a verification and critique of the NHC forecasts is provided. Reports of significant landfalling U.S. hurricanes can be very lengthy due to the amount of data collected and the time it takes to review it. Similar season summaries are created. Hurricane forecasters are continually exploring ways to improve forecasts and improve communication of storm-related hazards.
Weatherboy:
What day to day products are eliminated after the season ends?
Brown:
Tropical Weather Outlooks are only issued during the hurricane season, but if there is a threat of an out-of-season tropical cyclone, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks are issued. If an out-of-season tropical cyclone forms, like Alex did in 2016, the hurricane specialists will begin working rotating shifts, issuing forecasts and the typical advisory products.
Weatherboy:
Is there a concern at the NHC that people let their guard down the day after Hurricane season ends?
Brown:
We all take a sigh of relief once the season ends, however, the people that live in hurricane-prone areas should always be aware of the risks that hurricane pose to their home and family. The hurricane off season is a good time to take steps to strengthen your home, review your hurricane plan, restock supplies, and make sure your insurance needs are up to date. At NHC, the offseason becomes the outreach and education season, a time to help emergency managers and the public understand hurricane vulnerability and ensure their community’s resilience. Former NHC Director Max Mayfield said it best, “The battle against the hurricane is won during the off-season.”
Weatherboy:
Does the National Hurricane Center have any input on monitoring winter storms over the ocean?
Brown:
The Hurricane Specialist Unit does not, but the NHC’s Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB) provides marine forecasts of winter storms over the Gulf of Mexico and subtropical waters of the Atlantic Ocean. TAFB also provides backup services to the Ocean Prediction Center that is located in College Park, Maryland. Winter storm reconnaissance aircraft tasking is done by the Senior Duty Meteorologist at NOAA’s National Center for Environmental Prediction.
Weatherboy:
What is the biggest misconception of what the public thinks the NHC does over the winter vs reality?
Brown:
Most people believe that NHC is not as busy during the off-season as it is during the season. As the NHC Warning Coordination Meteorologist that organizes much of our Outreach and Education, the off-season is actually busier for me. NHC teaches three FEMA emergency management classes at NHC in late January and early February then a two-week World Meteorological Course is offered to international meteorologists. NHC also hosts a one-week Effective Hurricane Messaging Workshop for NWS meteorologists and recently offered the first-ever Marine Users Workshop. NHC also provides training at some state and national hurricane conferences and provides focused emergency management training to at least one-state within the hurricane prone area each year. Added together, NHC provides about 10 weeks worth of training to emergency managers and other meteorologists each off-season.
We also had the chance to catch up with National Hurricane Center Director Richard Knabb; that interview is here: https://weatherboy.com/interview-with-national-hurricane-center-director-dr-richard-knabb-weather-safety-social-media/
