A new disturbance is showing signs of better organization and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) believes there’s a medium chance that a tropical cyclone will form in the coming days in the Caribbean.

Widespread cloudiness and showers associated with a broad area of low pressure are located over the western Caribbean Sea, near the Central American coast. According to the NHC, close proximity to land is likely to limit development of this system for the next day or two, however, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some development to occur thereafter while the system moves slowly northward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.

At this time, the NHC believes there’s a 50-50 chance of tropical cyclone formation occurring here over the next five days. Beyond this area, the NHC doesn’t expect any tropical cyclone formation elsewhere in the Atlantic hurricane basin.

The Atlantic Hurricane Season runs through the end of November.