Hurricane Fausto strengthened today to a Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale as it heads in the general direction of Hawaii; meanwhile USGS is warning that the Kilauea Volcano is expected to erupt again in the coming days. Residents in Hawaii are being encouraged to monitor and prepare for the possible arrival of both in the coming days by Hawaii Emergency Management (HIEMA) and by county/island specific emergency response resources like Hawaii County Civil Defense on the Big Island of Hawaii.

“Although Fausto is expected to weaken as it approaches the Hawaiian Islands during the early to middle portions of next week, there is an increasing risk of some impacts from wind and rainfall,” the National Hurricane Center cautions in this morning’s update. They add, “However, it is too soon to determine the exact location or magnitude of these impacts, and interests there should continue to monitor the progress of this storm.”

As of their latest advisory, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) says Fausto is located about 1,560 miles due east of Hilo, Hawaii. Maximum sustained winds are now up to 105 mph with higher gusts; minimum central pressure is at 967 mb or 28.56″. The storm is moving to the west at 16 mph.

While the storm did gain strength today, the NHC says gradual weakening is expected during the next several days. Fausto is expected to continue its march west towards Hawaii and the official NHC forecast brings the center of the storm near Oahu and Maui late Tuesday into early Wednesday as a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of around 40 mph.

While meteorologists with the National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Honolulu office of the National Weather Service monitor Fausto, geologists with USGS and the Hawaii Volcano Observatory (HVO) are busy monitoring the Kilauea Volcano on the Big Island of Hawaii.

USGS has the Kilauea Volcano at an Advisory Alert Level and Color Code at Yellow. In the U.S., the USGS and volcano observatory units are responsible for issuing Aviation Codes and Volcanic Activity Alert Levels. Aviation Codes are green, yellow, orange, or red. When ground-based instrumentation is insufficient to establish that a volcano is at a typical background level of activity, it is simply “unassigned.” While green means typical activity associated with a non-eruptive state, yellow means a volcano is exhibiting signs of elevated unrest above known background levels. When a volcano exhibits heightened or escalating unrest with the increased potential of eruption, it jumps to orange. Finally, when an eruption is imminent with significant emission of volcanic ash expected in the atmosphere or an eruption is underway with significant emission of volcanic ash into the atmosphere, the code becomes red. Volcanic Activity Alert levels are normal, advisory, watch, or warning. As with aviation codes, if data is insufficient, it is simply labeled as “unassigned.” When the volcano is at typical background activity in a non-eruptive state, it is considered normal. If the volcano exhibits signs of elevated unrest above background level, an advisory is issued. If a volcano exhibits heightened or escalating unrest, a watch is issued while a warning is issued when a hazardous eruption is imminent.

 

“The summit eruption of Kīlauea in Halemaʻumaʻu is paused. Strong glow and flaming at south vent, steady glow at north vent, and the resumption of summit inflation over the past 24 hours has adjusted the modeled forecast time window for episode 52 fountains to between July 26 and July 30,” says HVO in their latest update.

Kilauea has been erupting episodically since December 23, 2024  from two vents  in Halema‘uma‘u. Lava fountaining episodes, which generally last for less than 12 hours, are separated by pauses that can be longer than three weeks.

While lava from this next eruption is expected to be contained to the summit caldera, other volcanic debris could travel far from the eruption site. A  major volcanic hazard is fallout of Pele’s hair and other volcanic fragments from lava fountains. Pele’s hair is strands of volcanic glass often produced by lava fountaining activity that can be carried well over 10 miles  from the vent. Other hot glassy volcanic fragments (tephra) including volcanic ash, pumice, scoria, and reticulite can fall on the ground within 1–3 miles  of the eruptive vent(s), with the highest concentrations immediately downwind of the vent(s). Various volcanic fragments have fallen on Highway 11 west of Hawai’i Volcanoes National Park at times, depending on wind and eruption conditions. Strong winds may waft light particles, including Pele’s hair, to greater distances downwind. Once on the ground, Pele’s hair can sometimes cluster and tangle together, giving it the appearance of a tumbleweed. The extent of Pele’s hair deposition is dependent on lava fountaining activity and wind conditions. USGS urges caution, saying, “Residents and visitors should minimize exposure to Pele’s hair and other glassy volcanic fragments, which can cause skin and eye irritation and can also contaminate catchment water supplies.”

When an ashfall incident is imminent due to some type of explosion at the volcano, the National Weather Service office in Honolulu will issue one of three types of products. The first is a Special Weather Statement.  A Special Weather Statement is issued when there is the potential for trace amounts of accumulating ash. When there’s a chance of a more significant ashfall, from over a trace to up to 1/4″, the National Weather Service will then issue an Ashfall Advisory. And if a heavy ashfall is expected with accumulations greater than 1/4″, an Ashfall Warning is issued.

When any of these products are issued, the National Weather Service encourages people to avoid ash. “Avoid excessive exposure to ash which is an eye and respiratory irritant,” the Special Weather Statement text reads. “Those with respiratory sensitivities should take extra precaution to minimize exposure.”
The International Volcanic Health Hazard Network (IVHHN), the Cities and Volcanoes Commission, GNS Science, and the USGS developed guidelines on preparedness before, during, and after an ashfall.

BEFORE
Stock essential items; a sustained ashfall may keep people housebound for hours or even days. Based on the guidelines you should:

• – have dust masks and eye protection
• – have enough drinking water for at least 72 hours (1 gallon water per person per day)
• – have enough non-perishable food for at least 72 hours for family and pets
• – get plastic wrap to keep ash out of electronics
• – get a battery-operated radio and extra batteries
• – have lanterns or flashlights and extra batteries for both
• – keep extra stocks of medicine for people and pets
• – have a first aid kit
• – prepare cleaning supplies, such as a broom, vacuum cleaner with spare bags and filters, and a shovel
• – get a small amount of cash; sources such as ATMs and banks may not be open
• – consider that you could be stuck in your vehicle, so store emergency supplies in your vehicle too

When a Special Weather Statement, Ashfall Advisory, or Ashfall Warning are issued for your area, take immediate action to protect life and property.

• – close all doors and windows
• – place damp towels at door thresholds and other draft sources, like window cracks
• – protect sensitive electronics and do not uncover until the environment is totally ash free
• – disconnect drainpipes and downspouts from gutters to stop drains from clogging, but allowing ash and water to empty from gutters onto the ground
• – if you use a water catchment system, disconnect the tank prior to the ashfall
• – if you have respiratory illness, such as chronic bronchitis, emphysema, or asthma, stay inside and avoid unnecessary exposure to the ash
• – ensure livestock and pets have clean food and water

DURING
If volcanic ash is falling, stay safe!

• – don’t panic; stay calm
• – stay indoors
• – if outside, seek shelter such as a car or in a building
• – use a mask or cloth over your nose and mouth
• – if a warning is given before ashfall starts, go home from work; if at work when ashfall starts, stay indoors until the ash has settled
• – do not tie up phone lines with non-emergency calls
• – listen to your local radio for information on the eruption and clean-up plans
• – do not wear contact lenses as these will result in corneal abrasion
• – if there is ash in your water, let it settle and then use the clear water. If there is a lot of ash in the water supply, do not use your dishwasher or washing machine. Water contaminated by ash will usually make drinking water unpalatable before it presents a health risk
• – you can eat vegetables/fruit from outside, but wash ash off first

Volcanic ash, even in small quantities, can do harm on the surface. A light coating on car or home windows can scratch them; great care should be used when removing ash. Ash entering water catchment systems can contaminate their contents, clog filters,  and/or do harm to pumps. More substantial eruptions can also impact cars and jet aircraft.

The National Weather Service says in the event Kilauea creates a large ash loud, NOAA’s  Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers (VAAC) will issue critical guidance to help aircraft steer away from destructive ash particles. NOAA’s VAAC has been providing guidance on remote volcanoes erupting in/around Alaska that could pose an aviation threat too.

While providing guidance ahead of a volcanic eruption, Hawaii County Civil Defense is also encouraging people to prepare for Fausto and any threat this hurricane season, which runs now through the end of November. ” The time to take action and prepare for your family, business, and property is before tropical cyclone hazards affect your area,” said Hawaii County Civil Defense. They recommend the following:

Develop a family emergency plan
• -Know how to receive emergency alerts and warnings?
• -What is my shelter plan?
• -What is my evacuation route?
• -What is my family/household communication plan?
• -Do I need to update my emergency preparedness kit?
Prepare a home survival kit
• -Be ready when a tropical cyclone impacts you. All utilities can be affected; prepare for the loss of water, electricity, gas, and telephone services.
Prepare an evacuation kit
• -Know your area. Prepare an evacuation plan ahead of time should your home, business, or property be in danger of damaging winds, surf, and flooding rains. Be prepared to evacuate before danger arrives.
Who should evacuate?
• -Residents in low lying coastal areas subject to storm surge
• -Residents along ridge lines and exposed to strong winds
• -Residents in low lying areas subject to flooding
• -Residents of lightly constructed and single-walled buildings
Note: Evacuation shelter locations and opening times will be announced on local Hawai’i Island radio stations and social media.
If you own a boat or small aircraft
• -Take action to safeguard your property before damaging winds, surf, and flooding rains arrive. All coastal area access will be closed during the storm.

The  Hawai’i County Civil Defense Agency recommends that residents and visitors sign-up to receive alerts they may issue at https://bit.ly/HCCDAlerts.  In addition to alerts about hurricanes and volcanoes, Civil Defense may also issue alerts about wildfires, tsunami, earthquakes, and other major events like significant car accidents and road closures.