Scientists with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have issued their outlook for spring weather, announcing a concern for an increased risk of spring floods for areas around the New York City metro region as well as much of the southeastern United States. However, NOAA says while there is a threat of minor to moderate flooding, the threat of major flooding, especially in population centers, is low.
“This is the first Spring Outlook since 2021 with no population expected to be impacted by major flooding,” said Ed Clark, director, NOAA’s National Water Center. “Of growing concern will be the potentially low flows on the Mississippi River this summer into fall due to well-below snowpack and precipitation in most of the Northern Plains and Midwest. This could have potential impacts on those navigation and commercial interests that depend on water from the Mississippi River.”
According to NOAA, the overall threat of significant flooding this spring is low due to above-normal temperatures and historically-low snowpack over the central and eastern U.S. . Moderate flooding is expected in climatologically flood-prone areas of the Midwest and South. The overall lack of snowpack and significant winter precipitation, coupled with the current outlook, suggests that low flow conditions may return to main stem rivers in the Greater Mississippi River Basin later this year.
While there isn’t a widespread threat of major flooding as has been the case in prior years, there is still a threat of minor to moderate flooding, especially across the southeastern U.S except for central and southern Florida. In addition to the southeast, NOAA says there’s an increased risk of at least minor flooding this spring for northeastern New Jersey and the New York City metropolitan area. Overall, approximately 133 million people are at risk for flooding in their communities, with roughly 400,000 at risk for moderate flooding.
To gauge the flood threat, NOAA’s National Hydrologic Assessment, issued by the National Water Center, evaluates a number of factors, including current conditions of snowpack, drought, soil saturation levels, frost depth, streamflow and precipitation.
NOAA’s Spring Outlook highlights weather, drought and flood predictions for the April through June period. NOAA produces seasonal outlooks to help communities prepare for weather and environmental conditions that are likely during the coming months to minimize impacts on lives and livelihoods.
Beyond the elevated risks over the season, NOAA wants people to be prepared anywhere at anytime for flood conditions this spring. “Heavy rainfall at any time can lead to flooding, even in areas where the overall risk is considered low,” NOAA said in their Spring Outlook. They add, “Rainfall intensity and location can only be accurately forecast days in the future, therefore flood risk can change rapidly.”
Turn around, don’t drown! NEVER drive through flood waters! https://t.co/EQirAlyrPK
— the Weatherboy (@theWeatherboy) March 26, 2024
