• Skip to primary navigation
  • Skip to main content
  • Skip to primary sidebar

Weatherboy

Weatherboy Weather News, Maps, RADAR, Satellite, and Forecasts.

  • Local
  • Earth Science News
  • RADAR
  • Current Warnings
  • Satellite
  • Current Maps
  • Forecast Maps
  • Video

NOAA Upgrades Storm Surge Model Ahead of 2023 Hurricane Season

by Weatherboy Team Meteorologist - May 2, 2023

The new storm surge forecast model upgrade from NOAA will allow for detailed surge forecasts and maps prior to landfall from a tropical storm or hurricane. This map is an illustration of a hypothetical "Hurricane X" on the New York City / Jersey City / Staten Island area. Image: NHC
The new storm surge forecast model upgrade from NOAA will allow for detailed surge forecasts and maps prior to landfall from a tropical storm or hurricane. This map is an illustration of a hypothetical “Hurricane X” on the New York City / Jersey City / Staten Island area. Image: NHC




The 2023 Central Pacific and Atlantic Hurricane Seasons start in just a few weeks on June 1 and ahead of the fresh season, scientists with NOAA have released an upgrade on storm surge models used there. Known as the Probabilistic Storm Surge model, or P-Surge for short, this serves as the primary model for predicting storm surge associated with high-impact weather like hurricanes and tropical storms.  This version 3.0 advances storm surge modeling and forecasting for the continental United States, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

Storm surge can have a catastrophic impact to coastal communities, destroying buildings and drowning people. Image: Stable Diffusion AI
Storm surge can have a catastrophic impact to coastal communities, destroying buildings and drowning people. Image: Stable Diffusion AI

According to NOAA, this upgrade features several new capabilities that will help forecasters better understand the risk of storm surge.  This includes new forecasts for surge, tide, and waves for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Forecasters can also now run the model simultaneously for two storms. This capability can help when there are two storms making landfall on the U.S. or one on the U.S. mainland and one impacting Puerto Rico and/or the U.S. Virgin Islands.  NOAA also says this upgrade improves calculations of friction over different types of land surfaces, which helps more accurately compute the extent of water inundation along the coast.

“We are seeing a sharp increase in catastrophic storm surge impacts in our coastal communities,” said Ken Graham, director of NOAA’s National Weather Service. “Our new capabilities to effectively and accurately model and forecast storm surge is critical to upholding the NWS mission of protection of life and property.”

The model uses official wind forecasts from NOAA’s National Hurricane Center (NHC) as well as NHC’s historic 5-year average errors in track, size and intensity of storms to create a collection of roughly 500 to 1,000 representative wind and pressure inputs. Those inputs are fed into NOAA’s Sea, Lake and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model, which computes water levels and inundation due to storm surge and tide. P-Surge combines the resulting water level outputs from SLOSH with the likelihood of the representative inputs from NHC data to create probabilistic products. This approach provides a range of possible outcomes based on the percent chance of each, and allows NWS forecasters to communicate worst-case scenarios to core partners and the general public.

Primary Sidebar

Sponsored Ad

Search

Latest News

  • Hurricane Center Says East Coast System Likely to Develop
  • National Hurricane Center Increases Odds of Cyclone Development Near Florida
  • Severe Weather Outbreak Likely in Mid Atlantic
  • July to Start with Severe Weather Event in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Delaware, & Maryland
  • Tropical Storm Barry Forms; Additional Storm Possible Near Florida
  • Severe Weather Threat & Tornado Risk Returns to Northeast Today
  • Hurricane Center Monitoring Possible Gulf Disturbance
  • Bolide Explodes over Southeastern United States; Piece Crashes into Home
About | Careers | Contact | Contests
Terms | Privacy | Ad Choices
Weatherboy is a (R) Registered Trademark of isarithm LLC, All Rights Reserved.
All content herein is Copyright by Isarithm LLC 1997-2022