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Odds Grow for Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Development

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The latest Tropical Outlook from the National Hurricane Center shows growing odds for potential tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic. Image: NHC
The latest Tropical Outlook from the National Hurricane Center shows growing odds for potential tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic. Image: NHC

While Tropical Depression Laura is well inland and moving through Missouri, meteorologists at the National Hurricane Center are tracking two disturbances for signs of tropical cyclone formation. Odds have improved yesterday that one of the systems could become a tropical cyclone over the next 5 days.




The first is currently a tropical wave located about 850 miles east of the Windward Islands. Today, the wave is producing a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms. According to the National Hurricane Center, some gradual development of this system is possible during the next several days while it moves westward at about 15 mph toward the eastern Caribbean islands. The National Hurricane Center believes there’s a 20% chance of tropical cyclone formation over the next 48 hours here; those odds grow to 30% over the next five days.

The more concerning system is another tropical wave is located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean just west of the Cabo Verde Islands. The northern part of this wave, which should move rapidly westward over the central Atlantic during the next few days, is not forecast to develop as it is expected to remain in unfavorable environmental conditions. However, the southern part of the wave is expected to be nearly stationary south of the Cabo Verde Islands for the next several days, and the National Hurricane Center believes some development of this system is possible early next week when it begins to move slowly westward over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. While no tropical cyclone formation is expected over the next 48 hours, the National Hurricane Center believes there’s a “medium” or 40% chance of tropical cyclone formation over the next five days.




The next two named tropical cyclones in the Atlantic will be called Nana and Omar. If they do form soon, they would set records in the Atlantic for the earliest “N” and “O” storms. The current record earliest 14th and 15th named storms are  Nate, which formed on September 6, 2005, and Ophelia, which formed a day later on September 7, 2005.