The National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida today increased the odds that a disturbance moving across the southeastern U.S. will develop into a tropical cyclone in the coming days. In a Tropical Outlook issued this afternoon, the National Hurricane Center said there is now a 40% chance that a tropical cyclone will develop in the area in question within the next 48 hours.
“An area of low pressure located off of the southeastern United States coastline continues to produce a large region of disorganized showers and thunderstorms,” wrote the National Hurricane Center in this afternoon’s Tropical Outlook. They added, “Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for additional development and a tropical depression could form over the next couple of days as the system meanders over the Gulf Stream, just offshore of the southeastern United States.”
Should a system develop, it would likely have limited impacts over Florida and/or the Bahamas. At this time, the American GFS forecast model doesn’t suggest the storm will intensify much. In the unlikely event it does develop into a tropical storm, though, it would be named Fred.
The Atlantic Hurricane Season runs through to the end of June.