Hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th in the Atlantic and May 15th through November 30th in the Eastern Pacific. While there have been tropical cyclones in the off-season, they are far and few between. Nevertheless, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) remains open for business all year long. During this time in the “off-season”, past storms are re-analyzed and current methods are evaluated to find strengths and weaknesses for future hurricane forecasts. Prior NHC Director Max Mayfield once said, “The battle against the hurricane is won during the off-season.”
We caught up with Meteorologist Daniel Brown at the National Hurricane Center. Brown has been working with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) for close to 25 years and with the National Hurricane Center since 2006. In 2009 he was promoted to Senior Hurricane Specialist, a position which involves issuing track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts along with watches and warnings for Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific tropical cyclones.
Weatherboy:
How soon does preparation for the upcoming hurricane season begin?
Brown:
The preparation for the next season actually begins before the end of the previous hurricane season. National Weather Service (NWS) tropical cyclone products and services are reviewed at a meeting (NOAA Hurricane Meeting) that takes place near the end of the previous season. At this meeting, representatives from NHC, local NWS Weather Forecast Offices, and other NWS National Centers and offices within NOAA discuss what went well during the season and what improvements to products and services are needed. Potential new products and product improvements are discussed. If changes are accepted, implementation and/or technical development timelines are drafted.
Weatherboy:
Does this mostly occur between December 1 and May 31?
Brown:
The planning and technical development for new products takes place year-round. NHC often preforms in-house testing and evaluation of new products for a season or two before the products become public. Extensive outreach and education about any new public product is done during the off season before the new product becomes available. In 2017, the NHC the storm surge watch and warning will become operational, the NHC will have the option to issue advisories, watches, and warnings for Potential Tropical Cyclones that threaten land areas, and the NHC will have a new Time of Arrival of Tropical-Storm-Force Winds Graphic. This spring, NHC outreach and education will focus on teaching the public, emergency mangers, and other meteorologists about these new products and services.
Weatherboy:
Who has the final say on if a product or idea will be initiated?
Brown:
There are a number of NHC staff, NWS regional and national headquarter personnel involved in the product development and change process. Most new products go through some form of social science testing and a period of internal evaluation.
Weatherboy:
What new products, or existing products that are modified, can the public expect to see next season?
Brown:
In 2017, NHC the storm surge watch and warning will become operational, NHC will have the option to issue advisories, watches, and warnings for Potential Tropical Cyclones that threaten land areas, and we’ll have a new Time of Arrival to Tropical-Storm-Force Winds Graphic.
Weatherboy:
Does the NHC re-establish or review standing operating procedures for a storm with emergency managers along exposed coasts?
Brown:
There are several meetings that take place each year that provide opportunity for NHC and NWS forecasters to talk to emergency managers about what worked and what products/services need improvement to assist them in hurricane preparedness decision making. It is important that there is opportunity for these discussions to take place since it is the emergency managers that are responsible for making the tough evacuation decisions in the face of a threatening hurricane.
Weatherboy:
Are drills or example scenarios tested?
Brown:
Yes, many state and local emergency managers perform pre-season hurricane drills. NHC is occasionally involved in these drills, but more often it is the local NWS office that assist, since they are the primary contact with local emergency managers during a threat.
Weatherboy:
Are new methods of warning or briefing the public tested before the next season?
Brown:
Many of the new NHC products and services go through an extensive social science testing phase. This includes focus groups and testing with emergency managers, broadcast meteorologists, and the public.
Weatherboy:
Are you made aware of any personnel changes with emergency managers that you may be dealing with should a storm approach? What do you do if someone new takes over?
Brown:
Yes, we are often notified of changes to state and/or local emergency managers. Typically many new state and local coastal emergency managers come to NHC to attend a one-week course Hurricane Preparedness for Decision Makers course that is offered by FEMA’s Emergency Management Institute.
Weatherboy:
What is the most memorable cyclone you tracked outside of hurricane season?
Brown:
There are several out-of-season tropical cyclones that I can recall tracking. Two of them are out-of-season tropical cyclones that occurred before I became a hurricane forecaster in 2006. Both of these I helped identify while I was a forecaster in NHC’s Tropical Anaylsis & Forecast Branch (TAFB). Since TAFB works around the clock even outside of hurricane season, they are often monitoring these systems well before they are tracked by the hurricane forecasters. In 2003, I was one of the TAFB forecaster on duty as Tropical Storm Ana formed in April. Ana became the first April tropical cyclone on record. I also remember the formation of Tropical Storm Zeta in late December at the end of the very active 2005 hurricane season. Zeta became an extremely usual Atlantic basin tropical cyclone storm that crossed calendar years. I also remember forecasting Beryl that made landfall in northeast Florida as a 65-mph tropical storm on May 28, 2012. It is the strongest pre-season tropical cyclone on record to make landfall in the United States. As you can tell, out-of-season tropical cyclones are not as uncommon as the pubic might think! Tropical cyclones have formed in the Atlantic basin in every month, so hurricane forecasters have to be ready to spring into action at any time!
