A powerful nor’easter could strike New Jersey and New York this coming Sunday and Monday, lashing the coast with rough surf, coastal flooding, high winds, and heavy rains. How intense the storm becomes and how far inland the effects will be felt still need to be determined.

For the long term period over the weekend and into early next week for the Mid Atlantic, the main feature of interest will be the development of a potentially significant coastal storm near the North Carolina coast along a stalled frontal boundary. According to the National Weather Service, this storm is anticipated to strengthen and lift northward Sunday into early next week.

 

Computer model forecast guidance that meteorologists use to aid in their forecasting continues to vary in the exact evolution of the coastal storm from Saturday night through early next week.

But in remarks shared by the Mount Holly, New Jersey office of the National Weather Service, meteorologists there said, “…we growing increasingly concerned about the potential impacts locally from this storm. There is still a fairly wide range of outcomes. A weaker and/or farther south solution with the surface low would translate to less severe impacts and lower chances of showers for our region.”

The region the Mount Holly, New Jersey office is responsible for includes all of Delaware, portions of eastern Maryland and Pennsylvania including Philadelphia, far northwest New Jersey, western and central New Jersey including shore points, and all of southern New Jersey. The New York City metro area and the nearby counties in New Jersey are serviced by the New York office of the National Weather Service.

The Mount Holly office adds, “A stronger and/or farther north placement of the surface low pressure would translate to greater and potentially much more severe impacts to our area, especially along and near the coast. This may include potential for moderate to major coastal flooding, significant beach erosion, and strong to damaging winds near the coast and possibly inland across the coastal plain.”

Complicating the forecast is Jerry, which developed into a Tropical Storm yesterday. Jerry is not a direct threat to the U.S. East Coast, but could have significant impact on the future track and intensity of the developing storm along the Mid Atlantic Coast. A similar scenario unfolded just over a week ago when Hurricanes Humberto and Imelda and their intensity and path were influenced by the other due to their close proximity. 

“Again, to be clear, a lot of uncertainty with this system, but it bears monitoring very closely, as significant impacts remain possible,” adds the National Weather Service.

The National Weather Service meteorologists continue to work without being paid. The U.S. Federal Government is still in a shutdown but the National Weather Service is considered an essential service for the safety of the public; as such, their staff are still expected to come to work –even with the threat of possibly not being paid for the time of the shut down.