While there were earlier concerns that a significant winter storm was possible in the Northeast in the days leading up to Thanksgiving, it now appears the week will kick-off with a more traditional low pressure system that’ll bring rain, snow, and wind usual for this time of year to the Great Lakes, Mid Atlantic, and Northeast regions.
On Monday, a strong cold front tied to a parent area of low pressure over the Great Lakes area will push east to the northeast coast while that low moves through southern Ontario into Quebec, Canada. While the cold front should bring rain to a wide area of the East Coast from Maine to Florida, it doesn’t appear there should be any severe weather outbreaks tied to this frontal passage. Behind the front, the National Weather Service believes there will be strong cold advection with increasing winds as the gradient tightens up.
With gusty winds rotating around the parent low, rain showers are likely in the southeast and the northeast. As colder air wraps into the region from behind, rain showers will turn to snow showers. Snow will be confined to Michigan, the higher terrain of western Pennsylvania and West Virginia, western Upstate New York, and northern Ohio.
For Tuesday and Wednesday, the gradient really tightens up as the surface low moves to the east and high pressure builds in from the west. Additionally, the upper low and trough will dig deep into the southeastern U.S. with the jet crossing the Mid Atlantic Tuesday into Wednesday. Widespread gusts of around 30 to 40 mph possible throughout the Great Lakes area, the Northeast, and the Mid Atlantic.
For the first part of Tuesday, these gusty winds will also help set the stage for potentially significant Lake Effect snows down-wind of the Great Lakes. 4-8″ or more of snow is possible in the Lake Effect Snow Band areas. Elsewhere, with the winds helping to dry things out, the rest of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic should be fair and dry Tuesday into Wednesday.
Later Wednesday, it appears a coastal storm may form well east of New England as energy and precipitation tied to the early week system works its way backwards a bit. For Thanksgiving Day, this could bring wind-whipped rains to southeastern New England. New York City should be fair and dry but breezy, allowing for outdoor holiday events to go on.