The Tropical Atlantic has perked up a bit, but according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), there is no imminent threat of tropical cyclone formation around the U.S. or elsewhere in the Atlantic Hurricane Basin. The NHC is tracking 3 threats: one near the upper Texas coast, the other near the Lesser Antilles, and the third in the eastern Atlantic.
A broad area of low pressure near the upper Texas coast is producing limited shower activity along and just offshore of the coasts of Texas and Louisiana. According to the NHC, this system is expected to linger near the coast through much of this week, and some slow development is possible if it meanders offshore. Regardless of development, heavy rains could cause some flash flooding across portions of coastal Louisiana and the upper Texas coast during the next few days. The NHC thinks formation is unlikely here though; they peg odds of formation over the next 48 hours only at 10% and only 20% over the next 7 days.
The system near the Lesser Antilles and Caribbean Sea has better odds of becoming a tropical cyclone, but those odds aren’t higher than medium at this time. Shower activity associated with a tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles continues to show some signs of organization. The NHC says that slow development is possible as the disturbance moves westward and reaches the Lesser Antilles on Monday. Later this week, the wave is expected to move across the central and western Caribbean Sea, where conditions will probably become more conducive for some development, and a tropical depression could form during that time. For now, there’s only a 10% chance of formation over the next 48 hours but those odds grow to 40% over the next 7 days.
The last area of concern is over the Eastern Tropical Atlantic Ocean. A tropical wave over western Africa is forecast to move offshore on Monday. Thereafter, environmental conditions could support some slow development throughout the week, the NHC says, while the system moves slowly westward or west-northwestward over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. However, odds of tropical cyclone formation are low here too: near zero chance of formation over the next 48 hours and only 20% chance of formation over the next 7 days.
