It appears a tropical cyclone is trying to form off of the southeast coast of the U.S.; the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami, Florida now believes there’s a 60% chance that a tropical cyclone will form here over the next 48 hours. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently inside the storm to investigate it further.

According to the NHC this afternoon, showers and thunderstorm activity remain disorganized in association with the low pressure system that is located about 200 miles east of Daytona Beach, Florida. In their latest Tropical Outlook, the NHC says environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive for additional development, but a tropical depression could still form over the next day or so while the low drifts westward towards the Florida Peninsula.

“Interests in Florida should continue to monitor the progress of this system, ” the NHC said in their Tropical Outlook.

While odds of a tropical cyclone developing have increased significantly in the last day, odds are low that it’d become anything more than a tropical depression or perhaps a weak tropical storm.  Overall conditions aren’t very favorable for explosive development and computer forecast model guidance agrees that it is very unlikely that a hurricane would form in this area anytime soon.

The 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season runs through to the end of November.