According to the latest Tropical Outlook from the National Hurricane Center (NHC)in Miami, Florida, it appears likely that more than one tropical cyclone will form in the Atlantic Hurricane Basin in the next 5 days. Of the three disturbances they are tracking, two are likely to develop into a tropical cyclone; one could also be a landfall threat to the United States.
The area of concern closest to the United States is an area of disturbed weather over the Caribbean. According to the NHC, a broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or so from a tropical wave currently located over northwestern Colombia and the south-central Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or over the weekend while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The disturbance is expected to move near or across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday, and move into the western Gulf of Mexico by Sunday where conditions could be favorable for additional development to occur. It is still too soon to say with certainty where the storm will go once it enters the Gulf of Mexico; in addition to the coast of Mexico, the western and central U.S. Gulf States are also at risk now of a future landfall from this system.
The next area of concern is over the central Atlantic. A broad trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central tropical Atlantic about 800 miles southeast of Bermuda. Only slow development of this system is expected during the next day or so due to unfavorable upper-level winds. Afterwards, environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend while the system turns eastward over the central Atlantic. The NHC says there’s an 80% chance that a tropical cyclone will form here within the next 5 days.
The third area of concern is a tropical wave over the far eastern tropical Atlantic located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Now, it is producing a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms. The NHC says that some development of this system is possible over the next several days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern tropical Atlantic. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for development by this weekend. Of the three systems being tracked now, this has the lowest odds of development. Right now, the NHC believes there’s only a 30% chance of tropical cyclone development here over the next 5 days.