Tropical Cyclone in Gulf Unlikely But Flooding Rains Likely for Texas Again

Soaking rains are possible into Saturday from a disturbance moving across the northern Gulf of America. Image: NWS

The National Hurricane Center now says it is unlikely a disturbance moving in the northern Gulf of America will develop into a tropical cyclone, but the National Weather Service is warning that heavy rains and potential flood issues could hit places like southeastern Texas that have seen an abundance of rain in recent weeks.

A broad area of low pressure over the north-central Gulf is currently producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. According to the Tropical Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center for the Gulf of America, they write, “Over the next day or so, this system is forecast to move generally westward across the northern Gulf where some slow development is possible.” However, by this weekend, the system is likely to move inland, ending any chances for tropical cyclone development. For now, the National Hurricane Center says there’s only a 10% chance that a tropical cyclone will develop here.

The National Weather Service says the Houston metro area could see excessive rainfall which could cause more floods Friday and Saturday. Image: NWS

But even if a tropical cyclone doesn’t form, the National Hurricane Center says, “locally heavy rainfall is possible for portions of the northern Gulf coast through this weekend.” The National Weather Service agrees with that assessment.

The Houston/Galveston office of the National Weather Service has been sharing excessive rainfall guidance with members of the public, highlighting the flood potential from this system on Friday into Saturday.

That National Weather Service office describes how a “”surge of tropical moisture bringing showers and storms to southeast Texas Friday into Saturday” will bring a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall for areas south and east of Conroe on Friday, and along the coast on Saturday. They add that areas along and south of I-10 may see 1-2″ of rain.

“Impacts include minor flooding of low-lying areas,” the National Weather Service said.

Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, things are quiet. According to the National Hurricane Center, no other tropical cyclone formation is expected anywhere in the Gulf of America, the Caribbean Sea, or the North Atlantic for at least the next 7 days.