A tropical depression appears to be forming southeast of the US. In their latest tropical outlook, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) believes there is a high chance that an area of disturbed weather south and east of the Bahamas will become a tropical depression this weekend.
A low pressure area located about 150 miles northeast of the Turks and Caicos Islands has become a little better defined this morning and the shower activity has increased somewhat since yesterday. Conditions are gradually becoming more conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form during the next day or two. The low is forecast to move northwestward and then northward through the weekend, and then turn to the northeast away from the United States early next week.
The NHC believes there’s a 60% chance of tropical cyclone formation here within the next 48 hours and a 70% chance of tropical cyclone formation over the next 5 days.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic Hurricane Basin, no other area warrants immediate concern. However, with the peak of hurricane season just weeks away and conditions becoming more favorable for development, it is likely the Atlantic basin will become quite active in the next 4 weeks whether or not this initial tropical depression takes shape.
Experts believe this Atlantic Hurricane Season, which runs through to the end of November, will be a busy one. Dr. Phil Klotzbach and the experts at Colorado State University updated their seasonal outlook again on July 5, showing a much more active than normal season expected. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) also released their own forecast which shows this hurricane season to be likely more active than others.
Satellite images, forecast models, and the latest advisories for tropical cyclones anywhere near North America can be found on our Hurricanes & Tropical Weather section of this website.