Tropical Storm Alberto moved inland over the Mexican Gulf Coast earlier today and has since dissipated over interior portions of the country; while Alberto’s remnants will be a fading threat, all eyes are back on the Gulf of Mexico and the southeastern United States where new tropical cyclones could form in the coming days.
After impacting Mexico earlier today, the circulation of Alberto has dissipated, but heavy rains and flash flooding continue in northeastern Mexico. With the storm system falling apart, there are no watches or warnings up. But that could change with another system forming in the Gulf of Mexico.
One storm down, but how many more await in the ’24 Atlantic Hurricane Season? 🤔 https://t.co/jEixPqsszS
— the Weatherboy (@theWeatherboy) June 20, 2024
According to the National Hurricane Center, a broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over southeastern Mexico and northern Central America on Friday. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development after this system moves over the Bay of Campeche on Saturday, and a tropical depression could form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend while it moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward. Right now the National Hurricane Center meteorologists believe there is a 20% of cyclone formation over the next 48 hours but boost those odds to 50% over the next 7 days.
Another areas of concern is near the Bahamas, south and east of the U.S. southeast coast. According to the National Hurricane Center, data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicates that the small area of low pressure located about 150 miles northeast of the northernmost Bahamas does not have a well-defined surface circulation. However, environmental conditions remain marginally conducive for further development and this system could become a tropical depression while the low moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
This system is expected to approach the northeastern coast of Florida or the Georgia coast early on Friday. With a possible threat here, another Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission is planned for Friday morning, if necessary. For now, the National Hurricane Center believes there’s a 40% chance that a tropical cyclone will form here in the coming days.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic, there are no other areas of concern being monitored by the National Hurricane Center for immediate tropical cyclone development.
