Tropical Storm Arlene, the second system of the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season, is forecast to weaken and head south, reducing the threat of heavy rain and gusty winds over Florida over the next 24 hours.
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami, Florida, Tropical Storm Arlene has changed little during the last few hours. The low-level center is still estimated to be near the southwest side of the main area of deep convection. The tropical-storm-force winds are confined to a relatively small region of about 60 nautical miles to the north of the center in the area of strongest thunderstorms. Although Arlene has strengthened a little today, the models are in good agreement that increasing vertical wind shear and notably drier air are expected to affect the cyclone beginning tonight. These conditions should cause a weakening trend, and Arlene is expected to become a remnant low on Saturday and dissipate on Sunday.
The tropical storm is currently moving south-southeast very slowly at about 5 kt and is being steered by a mid to upper level trough that it is embedded within. The NHC says they expect this overall motion is expected to continue for the next 24-36 hours, bringing the system closer to Cuba as it weakens.
For now, outer bands associated with the circulation of the tropical storm are lashing Florida with heavy rain and gusty winds. The potential for heavy rain will persist over portions of south and central Florida through Saturday. However, as the system weakens and heads south, the threat of rain will diminish throughout the day.