The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring a disturbance in the north-central Gulf they expect to become a tropical storm soon; it could strike Texas within the next 48 hours. The National Hurricane Center says Tropical Storm Watches may be needed for portions of the upper Texas or southwestern Louisiana Coast ahead of Tuesday / Tuesday’s nights arrival of the storm on shore.

According to the NHC, an area of low pressure located over the northern Gulf of America, about 125 miles south of the coast of southeastern Louisiana, continues to become better defined, and the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is gradually increasing. Continued gradual development is expected as the low moves slowly west-northwestward, and a short-lived tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form before the system reaches the Upper Texas or southwestern Louisiana coasts on Tuesday or Tuesday night. If this disturbance became a tropical storm and was the next named storm for the basin this year, it would be called “Edouard.”

“Interests along the southwest Louisiana and Upper Texas coasts should monitor the progress of this system, as tropical storm watches or warnings could be required for portions of the area later tonight or Monday morning,” the NHC cautions. They add, “Regardless of development, this system is expected to bring  locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Upper Texas and southwestern Louisiana coasts during the next several days.”

An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low-pressure area on Monday morning to help forecasters better understand the structure of the system.

For now, the NHC says there’s a 70% chance that a tropical cyclone will form here over the next 48 hours.