It appears some tropical trouble is brewing in the Gulf of Mexico and it is possible that a tropical storm or hurricane could impact the U.S. Gulf coast in the coming days. Even if a tropical cyclone doesn’t materialize, very heavy, flooding rains could impact portions of the Gulf Coast from Texas to Florida.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) believes odds are increasing that a tropical cyclone could form within this disturbed area of weather in the coming days. According to the NHC, an area of cloudiness and showers over the Bay of Campeche and the adjacent land areas is associated with a trough of low pressure. Slow development of this system is possible over the next several days as it moves slowly and erratically, and a tropical depression could form in this area by the middle of next week. Beyond bringing heavy rain to the U.S. coast regardless of development over time, due to the slow motion of the disturbance now, heavy rainfall is possible over portions of Central America and southern Mexico in the short term.
Based on today’s analysis, the NHC says odds for tropical cyclone development here have improved to 40%. While the NHC believes there’s a chance of tropical cyclone formation there, they don’t believe there are any other tropical cyclone threats elsewhere in the basin for the next 5 days.
Forecasters at NOAA believe 2021 will feature a busy Atlantic hurricane season. “Although NOAA scientists don’t expect this season to be as busy as last year, it only takes one storm to devastate a community,” said Ben Friedman, acting NOAA administrator. “The forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are well-prepared with significant upgrades to our computer models, emerging observation techniques, and the expertise to deliver the life-saving forecasts that we all depend on during this, and every, hurricane season.”
Tropical Storm Ana formed in the pre-season last month; should a new storm take shape in the Gulf in the coming days, it would be named Bill if/when it is classified as a tropical storm.