While what’s left of Hurricane Henri is raining-out over portions of New England, the National Hurricane Center is busy monitoring three potential threat areas that now have increasing chances of each becoming a tropical cyclone in the coming days.
The first area of concern is in the eastern Atlantic. A broad low pressure area is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the east-central tropical Atlantic more than 800 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Little development is expected during the next couple of days due to only marginally conducive ocean temperatures. Thereafter, however, the National Hurricane Center says that some gradual development is possible through the end of the week while the system moves northwestward to northward at 10 to 15 mph over the central Atlantic. While the National Hurricane Center (NHC) says there’s only a 10% chance of formation over the next 48 hours, they boost those odds to 40% at 5 days.
The next area of concern is near the Caribbean. According to the NHC, a tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean Sea is expected to form a broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean Sea by late week. Thereafter, environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable for gradual development while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. While the NHC expects no tropical cyclone development here over the next 48 hours, they raise to 50% within the next 5 days.
The third area of concern is in the far eastern tropical Atlantic. Located about 500 miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands, a disturbance is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The NHC says some slow development is possible over the next several days while the disturbance moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern tropical Atlantic. Chances of formation here are only 10% for the next 48 hours, but similar to the first system being monitored, odds improve to 40% chance of tropical cyclone formation over the next 5 days.
Elsewhere, tropical cyclone development is not expected anywhere in the Atlantic hurricane basin over the next 5 days.
The 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season continues through to the end of November. The peak of the season is usually in early/mid-September.