Tropical Storm Rafael has formed and is forecast by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to increase in intensity to a hurricane over time. As a result of the forecast, Hurricane Watches that were in effect for the Cayman Islands have been upgraded to Hurricane Warnings while a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for portions of south Florida.
As of the latest update by the NHC, Rafael was located about 175 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica and about 395 miles southeast of Grand Cayman. The minimum central pressure is down to 997 mb or 29.44″.
Rafael is moving toward the north near 9 mph and a northwestward motion is expected to begin later tonight and forecast to continue for the next few days. On the forecast track issued by the NHC, the system is expected to move near Jamaica late tonight, be near or over the Cayman Islands late Tuesday, and approach Cuba on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is now forecast and the system is forecast to become a hurricane on Tuesday. For now, tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center.
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge, and for the Dry Tortugas. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Jamaica while a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus, Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, and Las Tunas. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours while a Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Cayman Islands while a Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. According to the National Hurricane Center, preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in areas under a Hurricane Warning. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Rafael will bring wind, rain, and storm surge threats with it.
Hurricane conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands by Tuesday afternoon and are possible in western Cuba and the Isle of Youth on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Jamaica by late tonight and are possible in central Cuba, and in the lower and middle Florida Keys on Wednesday.
Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the Western Caribbean with the heaviest rainfall occurring over Jamaica and portions of Cuba through mid-week. Rainfall totals between 3-6″ with locally up to 9″ are expected. Flooding and mudslides could occur over portions of Jamaica and Cuba.
Heavy rainfall will spread north into Florida and adjacent areas of the Southeast United States mid to late week.
Minor coastal flooding is possible in Jamaica tonight. Storm surge could raise water levels by 1-3 feet above normal tide levels in the Cayman Islands on Tuesday, and could raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth. The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.
Swells generated by the system are expected to affect much of the western Caribbean during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
