After an extended pause in the Atlantic hurricane basin that has produced no tropical cyclones since Hurricane Ernesto formed as a tropical depression on August 12, the National Hurricane Center says tropical cyclone formation is possible in the coming days.

A tropical wave over the central Tropical Atlantic is producing some disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida says that environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form by early next week while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph and approaches the Lesser Antilles.

Beyond then, the system is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward across portions of the eastern Caribbean Sea during the middle part of next week.

While formation is unlikely over the next 48 hours, the National Hurricane Center says there is a medium chance – 40%- that a tropical cyclone would form over the next 7 days.